A ballot question facing every Potomac voter this November is trailing in the first public poll on the measure.

The survey of Question 3, the proposed constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, found 41% of likely voters oppose it, 28% support it and 31% are undecided. The poll of 600 likely voters, first reported by The Banner, was conducted by phone Sept. 10–13 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Mail-in ballots are already arriving. State Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis said ballots began shipping Sept. 19.

Question 3 appears on every Montgomery County ballot. If approved, the amendment would strip constitutional requirements that congressional districts be compact and follow natural boundaries, county lines and city lines. That would give the Democratic-controlled General Assembly a freer hand when it next draws congressional maps.

Democrats, who hold seven of Maryland's eight U.S. House seats, have faced pressure from national party leaders to draw a map that could unseat the state's lone Republican congressman, Rep. Andy Harris. Potomac sits in the 6th Congressional District, represented by Rep. April McClain Delaney, but the redistricting debate centers on Harris's Eastern Shore-based 1st District.

Who paid for the poll

Protect Maryland Votes, a coalition opposing Question 3, commissioned the survey. The group hired both a Republican polling firm, Ragnar Research Partners, and a Democratic firm, Lincoln Park Strategies, to conduct it jointly.

Yuripzy Morgan, a leader of Protect Maryland Votes, said the results show broad opposition. "When voters hear what this amendment actually does, they reject it," Morgan said, according to Maryland Matters.

Pollsters read the exact ballot language to participants before asking how they would vote. No public response from the pro-Question 3 campaign or Gov. Wes Moore's office specifically addressing the poll numbers was available as of Tuesday, Sept. 22.

Party breakdown

Republican voters were the most opposed, with 60% saying they would vote against the amendment. Among unaffiliated voters, 42% opposed it. Democrats were split: 35% in favor, 32% against and 33% undecided.

When pollsters framed the question around gerrymandering specifically, opposition rose. Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they opposed using Question 3 to gerrymander districts, including 52% of Democrats.

Moore and Harris disagree

Moore has pushed the amendment and avoided the word "gerrymandering," instead using phrases like "fair maps." Speaking in Washington on Sept. 18, before the poll was released, Moore said he is confident voters will back the measure, Maryland Matters reported.

Harris predicted the opposite. "I think the majority of Marylanders disagree with hyper-partisan gerrymandering, and I think they're going to reject the amendment," Harris said in a Sept. 7 interview, as reported by The Banner.

The amendment was approved by lawmakers along party lines during a special legislative session in August. It survived legal challenges, but the Supreme Court of Maryland rewrote the ballot language after finding part of it misleading.

Key dates

Early voting runs Oct. 22 through Oct. 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The preliminary voter registration deadline is Tuesday, Oct. 13. Same-day registration is also available.