Montgomery County Public Schools launched a two-phase boundary study on July 16 that will evaluate every elementary and middle school in the county for potential closure or consolidation.

Seven Potomac-area elementary schools and Cabin John Middle School are among those in the mix. A board decision on which buildings to shut is expected by May 2027.

The district approved a $1.9 million contract with FLO Analytics, the same firm whose high school redistricting recommendations prompted a parent lawsuit, to conduct the study. Superintendent Thomas Taylor told the board that MCPS is experiencing a "significant dip in enrollment" driven by declining birth rates and fewer international students.

"We do need to adjust for it and to think about things differently," Taylor said at the July 16 meeting.

Here's what that means for families in the Churchill and Wootton clusters. Bells Mill Elementary (611 students), Beverly Farms Elementary (583), Potomac Elementary (443), Wayside Elementary (442), Cold Spring Elementary (351), Stone Mill Elementary (550) and Travilah Elementary (377) all feed into Cabin John Middle School or Herbert Hoover Middle School. Cabin John itself, shared between both clusters and enrolling 974 students, is also subject to the study.

District-wide, the numbers are stark. K-5 enrollment has dropped about 9% since the 2019-20 school year, according to district documents. MCPS projects more than 13,300 surplus elementary seats and 7,100 surplus middle school seats by the 2031-32 school year, according to the Montgomery County Planning Board's annual school utilization report. Total enrollment is forecast to fall from 150,746 students in 2026-27 to 139,402 by 2035-36.

Two phases, one deadline

Phase 1 runs from August 2026 through May 2027. FLO Analytics begins data gathering in August, community engagement on criteria runs October through December, and the superintendent presents a closure recommendation between January and March 2027. Public hearings follow in April and May, with the board voting on consolidations in May 2027.

Phase 2 tackles boundary reassignments. New attendance-area options will be developed starting June 2027, with two rounds of public sessions through late 2027, a superintendent recommendation in early 2028, hearings in April 2028, and a final board vote in May 2028. All changes take effect for the 2029-30 school year.

The study arrives months after the board voted 7-1 in March 2026 to relocate Wootton High School students to the new Crown High School in Gaithersburg. A parent coalition, the Community Education and Policy Alliance, appealed that decision to the state. The Maryland Office of Administrative Hearings accepted the case in July 2026.

CEPA Vice President Elisa Sukhobok said in a July 20 statement that the Wootton case has direct implications for the new study: "If school systems can sidestep Maryland's school closure laws simply by renaming a closure a 'relocation,' then every Maryland family has a stake in this case.

Upcoming dates

  • August 2026: FLO Analytics begins data gathering
  • October–December 2026: Community engagement sessions (dates TBA)
  • January–March 2027: Superintendent's closure recommendation
  • May 2027: Board vote on closures and consolidations