Churchill enters the 2026 football season as the No. 3 team in Montgomery County, according to a 10,000-simulation computer model that projects the Bulldogs to win about seven games despite facing the county's toughest schedule tier.

The preseason rankings, published Wednesday by Moderately MOCO, slot Churchill behind only Quince Orchard (No. 1) and Sherwood (No. 2) after the Bulldogs went 8-1 in the 2025 regular season. The model projects an average of 6.8 wins with a range of 5 to 8, and gives Churchill a 34% chance of finishing as a top-three team countywide.

Wootton checks in at No. 17 out of 25 MCPS programs. The Patriots went 3-6 last fall and are projected to average 3.3 wins in 2026, with a range of 1 to 6.

The model highlights two Churchill home games as marquee matchups. Northwest visits on Thursday, Sept. 10, at 6:30 p.m., with Churchill projected to win by about six points (69% win probability). Paint Branch comes to Potomac on Friday, Oct. 30, with Churchill favored by roughly eight points (73%).

Northwest's ranking tells its own story. The Jaguars finished just 5-4 in 2025 but land at No. 5 because the model credits them with having played the toughest schedule in the county last season. They're projected for 5.9 wins in 2026.

Both Potomac programs open their regular seasons Thursday, Aug. 27. Churchill travels to Wheaton at 6:45 p.m., while Wootton hosts Poolesville at the same time. Churchill also has a non-conference tune-up at Potomac School in McLean, Va., on Saturday, Aug. 22, at 2 p.m.

The simulation model, built with help from intern Yvan Motsebo Chefor, was tested against the previous 10 completed MCPS football seasons. It finished an average of about 1.6 wins away from teams' actual final records, and roughly nine times out of 10 the final win total fell within the projected range.

"Run it 10,000 times and you start to get a much better picture of what is likely, what is possible and what would be genuinely surprising," Moderately MOCO wrote in its analysis.

The numbers will shift. Rankings update weekly once games begin, and MCPS fall tryouts started Wednesday, Aug. 12.