Building a new home in the Churchill High School cluster just got more expensive.

The Montgomery County Planning Board's FY 2027 Annual School Test projects that Winston Churchill High School will exceed capacity by 243 students by the 2030-2031 school year. That finding, which took effect Wednesday, triggered a Tier 1 Utilization Premium Payment on all new residential construction in Churchill's service area, adding $4,173 per single-family detached home on top of the standard school impact tax.

The Planning Board presented the annual test as Item No. 16 at a meeting in June and certified the results. Any residential development application in the Churchill cluster reviewed during fiscal year 2027 is now subject to the surcharge.

What the fee means for builders and buyers

The UPP is not a replacement for the school impact tax. It stacks on top of it. In Turnover Impact Areas, which cover much of Potomac's single-family neighborhoods, the base school impact tax for a detached home is $26,084. The Tier 1 surcharge, calculated as 13.33% of the applicable tax rate, pushes the school-related fee burden above $30,000 per unit. Rates vary by impact area classification within the cluster.

The system replaced a countywide housing moratorium that had blocked residential construction outright in areas with overcrowded schools. Councilmember Andrew Friedson, who represents District 1 including Potomac, explained the rationale when the policy was adopted: "Those who seek to build in areas with schools over capacity will still be able to create the housing we need to address the crisis. But they will have to pay, and pay more, based on the extent to which a local school or cluster is overcrowded."

Why Churchill is over capacity despite declining enrollment

Countywide, MCPS high school enrollment has dropped by 1,258 students since its 2023 peak, a 2.4% decline. The Planning Board projects 4,904 surplus high school seats across the county by 2031-2032, representing 9% of total capacity.

But the seats aren't where the students are. Churchill triggers the Tier 1 threshold because its projected utilization exceeds 105% of capacity and its seat deficit tops 160 students. Both conditions must be met.

The Board of Education approved new high school boundaries in March, and those changes take effect in the 2027-2028 school year. The Planning Board's projections already account for those boundary shifts, along with capital projects including the reopening of Woodward High School in Rockville (adding 2,249 seats) and the expansion of Northwood High School in Silver Spring (adding 736 seats). Even with those additions factored in, Churchill still exceeds capacity.

Seven schools flagged countywide

Churchill is one of seven Montgomery County schools projected to exceed adequacy thresholds by 2031. James Hubert Blake High in Silver Spring tops the list at 288 students over capacity. The others: Francis Scott Key Middle (142 over), Mill Creek Towne Elementary (194 over), Cabin Branch Elementary (151 over), Burning Tree Elementary (99 over), and Cashell Elementary (85 over).

Blake, Churchill, Francis Scott Key, and Cashell were placed in Tier 1. Burning Tree and Cabin Branch landed in Tier 2, where per-unit surcharges are higher. Mill Creek Towne was placed in Tier 3, the most expensive level.

What comes next

MCPS spokesperson Liliana López said the district aims to balance enrollment and capacity across the county. MCPS plans to begin a countywide elementary school boundary study and adopt new assignments by May 2028.

The complete FY 2027 School Utilization Report, including Churchill-specific enrollment and capacity details, has not yet been posted due to what the Planning Board called an "unprecedented delay" in MCPS data delivery caused by incorporating the boundary changes. The full report will be available on the Montgomery County Planning Department's Annual School Test webpage. Residents with questions about UPP fees can contact Adequate Public Facilities Planner Hye-Soo Baek at 301-495-2192.